Comments (16)
sorted by:
2
deleted 2 points ago +2 / -0
1
Cuzzo 1 point ago +1 / -0

Define "fortunes." Everyday is a rally.

1
deleted 1 point ago +1 / -0
2
Cuzzo 2 points ago +2 / -0

AV^ VIX botom. was my first impression, Put,Call,Put, call,Put, Call, Put.

BUT, I think you get a down move in ES(SPY) today. I was unsure until this morning and was thinking it may be a rest day, but with the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 6.8% number coming out this morning and ES moving south, Dollar done triple dooting, moved up gonna move sideways a few days, I think ES is due for a move back to around 4K by morning, but I think 4029.50 today.

I think we gonna whip saw for 5-7 before a flush, but at this point it could happen to us any day.

Cite: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/inflation-figure-that-the-fed-follows-closely-hits-highest-level-since-january-1982.html

2
deleted 2 points ago +2 / -0
1
Cuzzo 1 point ago +1 / -0

Resting not stressing. Top ends are over weekend. EOD sell, and next open?

2
deleted 2 points ago +2 / -0
2
Cuzzo 2 points ago +2 / -0

408.50

1
Cuzzo 1 point ago +1 / -0

I say it could happen any day, because it is suddenly looking like the beginning of May. Take a look. Especially with that initial 15 pt drop to a lower plateau.

1
deleted 1 point ago +1 / -0
1
Cuzzo 1 point ago +1 / -0

I think we are in lala land right now and everyone is breaking the bank to get in because they cannot imagine a 2800 bottom and are satisfied that 3600 did the trick. Heck, you called it this morning, more pump.

From Jan-June, trading was consistent and the downtrend was predictable, but this bounce is erratic and unpredictable for me. I do believe we have a good ol fashioned liquidity crisis leading into the midterms, sometime.

What do you think?

2
deleted 2 points ago +2 / -0
2
Cuzzo 2 points ago +2 / -0

Dead Cat Bounce:

2 Quarters of Contracting GDP, so we are in a recession. Big fancy finance family-in-law says so, too.

The ponzi scheme continues with the chips act, but something is fishy, Pelosi sold, right? Why?

I have heard there is a heightened threat of an "outlier" event, based on history, I guess. Any ideas of what could this be? Monkey Pox isnt doing it for me, although congrats to the Siga Sisters, or whatev. Taiwan, China, Pelosi visit, hmmm.

I don't agree at all that Powell will pivot. Why does anyone think this, other than the media? He has not made any indication that he intends to pivot and this bounce is proof that the critters are not participating in meeting his goals.

The data also says he is not having the desired effect. I think he is headed to 6-6.25%. I think this is the magic number for the Dollar and that he is willing.

Look at DXY. I said it the other day, and the chips act full passage would, (p)resumably give the market some teeth against the rising dollar diminishing international sales, BUT nonetheless, I see it going to 115. This could happen quickly from here. If you look at the flush in 2020 and the big flush in 2008/2009, you saw dollar volatility very much like we are seeing today. We are in view.

My theory as to why does the dollar go down, then go way up in a crash? Because everyone gets excited trying to call a bottom, and they break the bank, buy equities, spend whats left, call it a day. But, when/if the bears continue to force the correction, and eventually comes CAPITULATION, the bank is broken, so they participate in the sell-off to raise cash, scraping every dollar they can get to survive, thus driving the dollar up by a double-clip. THEN, it eases.

This is a market based on hope. Fuel prices are letting up because people are not traveling. Just got off vacation and thought about staying longer because of the deals and vacancies.

Its possible that everyone thinks the chips act is a "sure bet," and that this bounce has been the pricing in of this "bet." What if it does not happen? What if something else is about to happen? On top of the lowest consumer confidence in history...This could be the makings of the flush we need.

Im Dumb.